Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom
Katsu, the Wanderer
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Seb Ball (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Kwun Chan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 12: Loss vs Alfie Thomasson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.