Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
48th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dan Tripp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 27:73
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.