Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dan Tripp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Samuel Thomas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.