Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jake Warburton

12th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leila Catton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.43
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.90
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Alex Chițu

16th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Troth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Hills (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Arian Sultani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.69
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.08
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.60

Jonny Chapman

26th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damon Elgie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Toby Beckham (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Farnell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jack Raven (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.82
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Frazer Eastman

31st • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Raven (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Scupham (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver M (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kiran Lee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.73
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.43
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.44
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Edward Catling

25th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Samuel Thomas

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Scupham (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kwun Chan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.89
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.82

Stefano Berian

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Harrison Shore (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.91
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Stefanos Argyriou

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Dyson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.98
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Lewis Foulkes

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kit Valentine (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Margetson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Bruno Cracco

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver M (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50

anna xia

dropped • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Whewell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Alexander Teague

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.44
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Craig Johnson

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs anna xia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Finbarr "Steelfur" Begley

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kwun Chan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Leila Catton

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Adam Mann

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Burlace (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Appleby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Daniel Curry

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Catling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Keys (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.91
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Seb Lee

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jude Fisher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Tom Gordon

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.55

Isaac Fogg

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Felix Elias (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

James Clark

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Farnell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcus Archer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Matthew Brown

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yong Jin Jang (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Debling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.