Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - United

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

1 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

32nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Gordon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Prism, Awakener of Sol

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.53
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.77
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.