National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sara van Reeken

51st • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Appleby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Lüthi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Scupham (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.29
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nathan Hills

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Richard Carr (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.34
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Marcus Archer

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Clark (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Smith (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.45
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.52
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Richard Carr

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Callum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seb Ball (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Dyson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.16
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.