Azalea, Ace in the Hole
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
34th • 5-1-0
33%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
5.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Adam Collins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ed Cardall (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
21st • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
5.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Round 11: Win vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 12: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aidan Keown (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Calf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Declan Patrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam Mann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ed Cardall (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kiran Lee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jack Raven (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Whewell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Scott Morris (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Keown (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.