Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jack Mountford

5th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.37
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.62
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.33
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.89
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.85
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Tim Dasiukevich

33rd • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Teague (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steve Margetson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.59
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.35
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Rhyan Bromell

18th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Felix Elias (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs James Adams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.80
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.83

Thomas Neseyif-Deakin

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ed Cardall

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Appleby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Liam Canning

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Farnell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Adams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.