Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jack Mountford

5th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

5.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.37
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.97
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.91
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Tim Dasiukevich

33rd • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Teague (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steve Margetson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.47
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.23
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Rhyan Bromell

18th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sharif Shaaban (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Felix Elias (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pontus Angerfors (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs James Adams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.86
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	2.12

Thomas Neseyif-Deakin

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Ed Cardall

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Appleby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Liam Canning

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Farnell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Adams (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.