Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2025

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

James Adams

29th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Simon Lüthi

52nd • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Troth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kate Dunstone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 17:83

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kwun Chan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Toby Beckham

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jess Swandale

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.