National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom - Rhinar, Reckless Rampage (CC)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

James Adams

29th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Canning (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Liam Holden (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Simon Lüthi

52nd • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Troth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kate Dunstone (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kwun Chan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Toby Beckham

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonny Chapman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jess Swandale

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.