Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - United Kingdom
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
20th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Harbinson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Oliver M (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Nathan Hills (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
47th • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jess Swandale (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Round 10: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 11: Loss vs Joshua Kinnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Sara van Reeken (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Scott Morris (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Callum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
Round 11: Loss vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Puffin, Hightail | 85% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alfie Thomasson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stefanos Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs George Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Scott Morris (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Athena Halkia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Robert Catling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.