Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - United

Puffin, Hightail

Puffin, Hightail

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

24th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

7.5

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mckinlay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damon Elgie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Gordon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

Kano, Dracai of Aether

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

15:85

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

Prism, Awakener of Sol

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.30
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Win	✗	0.83	4.74
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.47

38th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

Jarl Vetreiði

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhys Francis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Dash I/O

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Henry Burlace (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Callum Young (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.06
R10	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.52
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.