Kano, Dracai of Aether at National Championship 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Noah Hicks

3rd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

4.4

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Walley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jude Fisher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Crame (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Edward Catling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jack Raven (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

15:85

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.04
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.74
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.20
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Matthew Duggan

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs anna xia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Collins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tim Coates (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marcus Archer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.10
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.91

David Dyson

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefanos Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 15:85

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Carr (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R10	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Athena Halkia

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.