Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sean Knowelden

5th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Kinnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Tripp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winning (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Isaac Murray (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.28
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.73
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Francesco Giorgio

27th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Calf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefanos Argyriou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.68
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jack Warren

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Troth (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Scupham (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Yong Jin Jang

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Brown (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Micklewright (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyhrone Bennett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Adam Collins

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs George Jones (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emel Walsh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.20
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.