Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 10-3-0
54%
Meta
+3.5
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.5
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Win vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
54% (7/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
9th • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.3
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8
Round 2: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 6: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs motohiro makigano (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
37th • 6-6-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
5.8
Surp
2.3
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 3: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 6: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Round 11: Loss vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 12: Loss vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
59th • 4-7-1
100%
Meta
-2.9
Perf
5.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
90:10
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs kei kimura (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 10: Loss vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Hiromitsu Okita (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (12/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.9 Wins (6.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 90% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R9 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-5-1
70%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
4.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-1
89%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hiromitsu Okita (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
90:10
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Yuichi Oshima (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs kei kimura (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 90% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-1
62%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taiki Bamba (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs kei kimura (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.7
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Round 6: Loss vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yoshiki Higa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
Round 2: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs kei furuta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yutaro Yamada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.