FaB-Results

Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - Japan

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Keisuke Oki
22nd • 7-4-1
50%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
5.5
Surp
3.5
Diff
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
!
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs kei furuta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
!
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Dorinthea Ironsong
!
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Fang, Dracai of Blades
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50
Prism, Awakener of Sol
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
Arakni, Marionette
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Kazuaki Fukui
48th • 6-6-0
67%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
5.9
Surp
3.9
Diff
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hatta Rin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Connor Leverton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 優輝 大野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Fang, Dracai of Blades
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tomoya Ohta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50
Dash I/O
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Kano, Dracai of Aether
!
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Betsy, Skin in the Game
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs ユウマ ハマザト (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Arakni, Marionette
!
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Arakni, Marionette
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
!!
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Taiki Koike
dropped • 4-5-0
33%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
Arakni, Marionette
!
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs TOMOKI KAJIWARA (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
!!
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33
Dash I/O
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.