Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
3 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 7-4-1
50%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs kei furuta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Round 6: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56
Round 11: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Draw |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
48th • 6-6-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
5.6
Surp
3.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hatta Rin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Connor Leverton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 優輝 大野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tomoya Ohta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs ユウマ ハマザト (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Round 12: Win vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
dropped • 4-5-0
33%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs TOMOKI KAJIWARA (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Win vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.