FaB-Results

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship 2025 - Japan

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yoshiki Mizutani
3rd • 11-3-0
71%
Meta
+3.5
Perf
6.2
Surp
4.4
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32
Fang, Dracai of Blades
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 64:36
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Dorinthea Ironsong
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
TSUNAKI SAWAI
28th • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Leverton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
Arakni, Marionette
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
!!
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Dorinthea Ironsong
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Kassai of the Golden Sand
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.