Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
2 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 11-3-0
71%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
6.4
Surp
4.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
71% (10/14 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 11 actual)
Surprise
6.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
28th • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Leverton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Round 8: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.