Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 8-2-2
42%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
6.1
Surp
3.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Taiki Koike (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Koki Mori (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Draw vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Draw |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Draw |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
27th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takaaki Ueno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yutaro Yamada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Hiroki Saito (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
44th • 6-6-0
42%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
6.3
Surp
4.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Round 4: Win vs タカユキ アサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 10: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
56th • 5-7-0
42%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
5.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hiromitsu Okita (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Connor Leverton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yoshiki Higa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs 和佳 倉田 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs kei kimura (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (5.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs motohiro makigano (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.