FaB-Results

Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - Japan

Puffin, Hightail

Puffin, Hightail

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hiroki Saito
55th • 5-7-0
0%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.2
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs ryutaro Doi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
5:95
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs KOTA SANJO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Koki Mori (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs kei kimura (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Arakni, Marionette
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
20:80
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Takumi Watanabe
dropped • 4-5-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81
Dash I/O
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57
Dash I/O
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
Dorinthea Ironsong
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.