Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 8-5-0
38%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
5.9
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs kazuhiro maeda (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs motohiro makigano (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 6: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
38% (5/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Loss |
17th • 8-4-0
33%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
5.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yutaro Yamada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Round 10: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
25th • 7-4-1
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
5.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Yusuke Miki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ryutaro Doi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Round 6: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
Round 10: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
80:20
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Hiroki Saito (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Draw vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Draw |
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Keita Arai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
Round 3: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 5: Win vs Yusuke Miki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31
80:20
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
Round 12: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 6: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 9: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 10: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs ユウマ ハマザト (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Yutaro Yamada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.