Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
3 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
34th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.9
Surp
3.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tomoya Ohta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
Round 5: Win vs Yoshiki Higa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs TAIHEI OGAMI (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
51st • 5-7-0
42%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
5.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Win vs Yoshiki Higa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Keita Arai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 62:38
Round 6: Win vs haruka sonoda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs ユウマ ハマザト (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
15:85
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
Round 2: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 和佳 倉田 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs ryotaro takashima (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.