Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 12-3-0
93%
Meta
+3.0
Perf
6.1
Surp
4.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Round 3: Loss vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yuichi Oshima (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
93% (14/15 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.0 Wins (9.0 expected, 12 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
13th • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
5.6
Surp
4.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ken Sawada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Koki Mori (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
Round 6: Win vs 優輝 大野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
Round 11: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
26th • 7-5-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
5.3
Surp
3.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs TOMOKI KAJIWARA (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Taiki Koike (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs TAIHEI OGAMI (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs haruka sonoda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
30th • 7-5-0
75%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
6.2
Surp
3.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tomoya Ohta (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
Round 4: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Round 6: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
31st • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Loss vs Yusuke Maeda (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs タカユキ アサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 寿樹也 菅野 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Takaaki Ueno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Taiki Koike (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
Round 10: Win vs 優輝 大野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs kei iikubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
38th • 6-6-0
75%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
5.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryota Kitanaka (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs kei furuta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Keita Arai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
Round 11: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (6.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11
Round 2: Loss vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ken Sawada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Koki Mori (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.