Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at National Championship 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs kei furuta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

Dorinthea Ironsong

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

dropped • 0-3-0

0%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiki Higa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Dash I/O

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.