FaB-Results

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at National Championship 2025 - Japan

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

FUKUHARA RYOU
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 根本 正尭 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 23:77
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 颯 小嶺 (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs TAIHEI OGAMI (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs タカユキ アサヒナ (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 30:70
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs TOMOKI KAJIWARA (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
10:90
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 8:92
Tatsuaki Tsuchida
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 8:92
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 8:92
Fang, Dracai of Blades
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Levia, Shadowborn Abomination
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs TOMOKI KAJIWARA (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs シンヤ カワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Kassai of the Golden Sand
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.