Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Dorinthea Ironsong
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 10-4-0
79%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
6.0
Surp
4.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs yohei ohki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 76:24
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ken Sawada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39
Round 8: Win vs 智彰 吉村 (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs 稜馬 石川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
79% (11/14 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (7.9 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
5th • 9-4-0
62%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
6.5
Surp
4.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marshal Meador (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Yuji Okita (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs ユウマ ハマザト (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
Round 8: Win vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
Round 11: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs shoma yamamura (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
62% (8/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
47th • 6-5-1
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 拓朗 平岡 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Keita Arai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 優輝 大野 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Yutaro Yamada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Draw |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs K. Tanaka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Round 3: Win vs TAIHEI OGAMI (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
Round 6: Loss vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.