Kano, Dracai of Aether at National Championship 2025 - Japan
Kano, Dracai of Aether
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 8-4-0
75%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
5.8
Surp
3.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs humiaki hattori (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kazuaki Fukui (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59
Round 8: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
Round 10: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs タカヤ スギモト (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.