Pro Tour: London - Aurora, Shooting Star (CC)

Aurora, Shooting Star

162 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul van Gijssel

3rd • 9-2-0

82%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

5.7

Surp

7.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs kuba tambor (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

7.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.44
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.18
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.19
R15	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.85
R16	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.92
R17	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Shawn Dhaliwal

3rd • 8-3-0

82%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

5.1

Surp

5.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Bridges (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.23
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.91
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.06
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.80
R16	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.92
R17	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Michael Jaszczur

5th • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chanon Puttaree (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pistel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Birgir Hrafn Buason (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alexander Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.99
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.40
R15	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.40
R16	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Shahmir Samee

63rd • 9-0-0

100%

Meta

+4.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

7.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Paixão Viana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.53
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.48
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38

Charles Dunn

16th • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

5.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edison Yue (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Rodger (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.28
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης

28th • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs SEAN STELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vulpe Razvan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38

Lucas Oswald

64th • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

7.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tiago Rodrigues (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.39
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.50
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Filip Mikołajczyk

15th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nico Grieco (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tilen Blazinšek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Holík (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Matt Rogers (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.81
R13	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.15
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Chu Heng Eng

23rd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.75

Jacob Baugh

24th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

6.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Chițu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Niklas Bengtsson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs enzo costa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Lucas Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs CODY READY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38

Jin Han Toh

50th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Jones (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Menion Croll (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.11
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38

Christian Hauck

65th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.35
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.55

Nick Gabler

67th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

6.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philip Connolley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Will Rea (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Justin Kinison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs William Pistel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.50
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Rafael Durán

68th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

6.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Murray (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Domonkos Kiss (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs NANAMI OCHI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.24
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.35
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38

Zack Phillips

14th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cayne Wilbur (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Mateusz Sass (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.02
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.39
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Bartosz Ziemba

35th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Murray (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yi Jun Loh (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.30
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.24
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Nethan Henriksen

41st • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.10
R13	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.15
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.06
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

kuba tambor

46th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan Petersen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Urban (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Dagan White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.15
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.60
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.24
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Matthew Dilks

48th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Hill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs John Milner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.60
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.11
R14	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Tariq Patel

51st • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

5.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kristian Čurla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Omar Soubra (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs George Melissakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.11
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.96
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

enzo costa

62nd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niklas Bengtsson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Brookes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.53
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.48
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.03

Enki Dupaquier

70th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs theofanis neofotistos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Pearlman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Wadley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.25
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.02
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pudding Tam

76th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs shoma yamamura (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor Bloodworth (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Xavier McLean (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.36
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Alex Becker

103rd • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.21
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.82
R13	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.15
R14	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38

Cas Mulder

129th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Janik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.07
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.71

Jimmy Nguyen

55th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karan Gill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.55

Gordon Koh Koh

58th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Goetz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Evan Bridges (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Kiran Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.10
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.27

Alex Chițu

79th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Molho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paweł Roman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.82
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R15	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ilmari Lahtinen

81st • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cynthia Boutot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexandros Argyriou (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alessio Bouko

99th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Yau (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Adam Urban (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.35
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.27

Mert Gezgin

100th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyson Au (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.97

Ryan Hill

107th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Dale Sayson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Samuel Braben (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.60
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R12	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Justin Cu

115th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raj Parikh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Rafael Durán (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Caroline Flamia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Joseph Kaiser

118th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roger Bodee (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Samuel Braben (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.11
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Samuel Braben

121st • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Will Rea (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Denny Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Coppley

123rd • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Saillour (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.15
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.45
R15	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Nicholas Porter

145th • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kim Barroso (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Correas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R15	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.33

Denny Koh

133rd • 4-4-1

89%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elly Bird (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jason Rolfe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Michaël Emery (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Emlyn Ingram

47th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Simon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Webb (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Brookes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.60

Allen Lau

73rd • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danny Halstad (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Connor McGrath (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

John Milner

78th • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raj Parikh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.28
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dagan White

80th • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs kuba tambor (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.70
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mercy Bickell

85th • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Horne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.07
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gary White

112th • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.44
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Ralph Schlauri

120th • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Denny Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs kuba tambor (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.29
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Nathanael Hunt

141st • 3-6-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fred God (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sam Martinez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michaël Emery (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Denny Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.20
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Kinison

147th • 3-6-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Peter Markovič (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Michaël Emery (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R15	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

IAN MESQUITA

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs George Rodger (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.25
R13	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Vinicius Timm Toniazzo

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Wadley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.51
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.22
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Connor McGrath

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Daniel Edwards

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R14	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Marijn Lybaert

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Murphy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mario Cioffi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Elly Bird

dropped • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Juliano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Denny Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob West (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.33
R13	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Yuki Lee Bender

dropped • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs enzo costa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonathan Asquith (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.42
R13	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Bartosz Dominiak

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ville Schalin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Kuric (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.42
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

William Pistel

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Murray

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Durán (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Adams (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oli Cornish (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.23
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Evan Herndon

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Richard McMahon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yi Jun Loh (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.91
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexandros Argyriou

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kuba tambor (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Brian Hoffman

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

David Chirulescu

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandros Argyriou (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Kitsos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joe Cassidy

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grant Rockefeller (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Steele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan Richards

dropped • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Maciej Janik

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bino Nolting (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

dropped • 4-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stew Fraser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Milner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

sean Burke

dropped • 3-1-1

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Gui Cohen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paweł Roman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Adrián Marín

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs NANAMI OCHI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.17
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andy Pham

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs simon diaz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Connor Bloodworth

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Allan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cynthia Boutot

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Daniele Frattarelli

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rokas Pocius (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.48
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Didier Deurloo

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Douglas Levy

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Renz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Linus Albat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Edison Yue

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kelvin Tan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

George Jones

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jan Eid (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Jacob Friis Nielsen

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob West

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elly Bird (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Jake mccormack

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cynthia Boutot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

John Cooper

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Lu-Trinh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vulpe Razvan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Lewis Foulkes

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Recinos III (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

Liam Holden

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Metodi Nikolaev (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Linus Albat

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Levy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Lucas Saillour

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Baker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.32
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Luiz Bretas

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Brown (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jascha Werth (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mario Cioffi

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paweł Roman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marijn Lybaert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cass Emerson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.34

Pat Eshghy

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Dowling (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kelvin Tan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Roman Legíň

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Sebastian Grøndal

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Zapata (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raj Parikh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Hills (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Stephan Schwarz

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Canning (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs simon diaz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tiago Rodrigues

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cayne Wilbur (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kiran Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.09
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Escoffier

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ville Schalin

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Kyriakou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew W (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Vulpe Razvan

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Will Rea

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Menion Croll (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Rodger (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Gabler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

simon diaz

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antonio Otero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Pham (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Logan Petersen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Christian Drabusenigg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Adrian Słowiński

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs William Pearlman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Milner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michaël Emery (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Cohea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nova Chan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Andrea Mengucci

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James LeResche (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Arjun Garg

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Myles Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Zhang (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matheus Pereira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.13
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Breno Santos

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Steele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James LeResche (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.06
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Bun Ar

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raj Parikh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edison Yue (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fred God (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Caleb Lolley

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Donneger (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kai Young Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cayne Wilbur

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tiago Rodrigues (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Danny Halstad

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Law Wen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

David Wadley

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Domonkos Kiss

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Durán (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Eduardo Melo

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kiran Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.27
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Frederik Emil Hansen

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vladislovas Kofyrinas (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Gary Gold

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Henderson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

George Chew

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Cassidy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Grégory Lefebvre

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antonin Poubeau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Gates (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Urban (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jean Luka Zorko

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cedric DeRouchie (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Raven (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Birgir Hrafn Buason (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Joel Gibbons

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antonin Poubeau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.53
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.77
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Jordan Jalbert-Ross

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Larissa Chow (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Justin Fernandes

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Karan Gill

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Leonardo Paixão Viana

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Birgir Hrafn Buason (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Lorenzo Latino

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard McMahon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Billy Horn (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rokas Pocius (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lorenzo Miele

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Martinez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zoe Morgan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.42
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Molho

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.49
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Murphy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Rea (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lukasz Bigos

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Simon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Matthew Brown

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Artie Hamelin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Horne

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Metodi Nikolaev (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Felipe Rita (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew W

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Naib Mobassir

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kim Barroso (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nathan Hills

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sam Martinez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Grøndal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Niklas Bengtsson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs enzo costa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Omar Soubra

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel murray (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Paul White

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Peter Markovič

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.26
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Phillip martinez

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Rasmus Møller

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pearlman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Roger Bodee

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Goetz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Caroline Flamia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Tee Thebeau

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Kitsos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kim Barroso (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Thomas Dowling

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

Tyson Au

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Canning (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Kyriakou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ville Teräväinen

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enes Findik (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Wesley Chandler

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Mountford (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wiroon Juesathainrat

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Wadley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Jackson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Tan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stew Fraser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Risa Shioji

dropped • 1-3-1

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-

Brian Lorenz

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Diorge Brognara

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nova Chan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theo Maggs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tiago Rodrigues (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick McGregor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Felipe Rita

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Russell Howse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Billy Horn (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

João Zeni

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Breno Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob West (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Piotr Chudobinski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kim Barroso

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Izumi

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nguyen Giang

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lloyd McBride (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Brown (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Patrick Steele

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Breno Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Cassidy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Recinos III (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Richard Kruithof

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs NANAMI OCHI (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Metodi Nikolaev (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Guilherme Brito silva (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alaric Ng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Billy Horn

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felipe Rita (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Kai Young Tan

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Lolley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tiago Polónio

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kristian Čurla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Leonardo Pessôa

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kim Barroso (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Kyriakou (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Arthur Nijssen

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oli Cornish (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Florian Huepper

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew McInnis

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ian Holland

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.