Arakni, Marionette
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.7
Surp
4.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Adam Fischer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Euan Ansell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
Round 14: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R15 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
126th • 5-4-0
33%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.4
Surp
5.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs Danny Halstad (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Round 12: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 13: Win vs Denny Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R14 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sam Martinez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs George Jones (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Win vs Arthur Nijssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justine DeLuise (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Malpassi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs Larissa Chow (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zayne Johnson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcus Brown (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Becker (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
20%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jack Raven (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Larissa Chow (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Draw |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Win vs Karan Gill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Phillip martinez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Juliano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Omar Soubra (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
20%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tilen Blazinšek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justine DeLuise (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Liam Canning (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
40%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Urban (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs George Jones (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.