Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Pro Tour: London
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
29th • 6-3-0
89%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.8
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tariq Patel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
Round 15: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
83rd • 5-4-0
78%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Isaac Murray (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
Round 13: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Loss |
| R14 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
127th • 5-4-0
89%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs enzo costa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
Round 14: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
136th • 3-6-0
78%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Jose Iglesias Lopez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-1
60%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Draw |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Caroline Flamia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mario Cioffi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Martinez (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyson Au (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Harle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cynthia Boutot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs James Adams (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Russell Howse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs sean Burke (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christian Dale Sayson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
80%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Richard McMahon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.