Kano, Dracai of Aether
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 8-1-0
44%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
6.5
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Hills (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
85:15
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Dagan White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Alex Chițu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
6.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Win |
21st • 6-3-0
89%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Arthur Reynolds (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Gates (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Kelvin Ng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
85:15
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17
80:20
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Matthew Allan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 85% | Win |
| R15 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 80% | Win |
72nd • 6-3-0
89%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Choi Tae seong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nova Chan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matt Rogers (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Peter Bråss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
85:15
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs shoma yamamura (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
Round 14: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 15: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R14 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kai Young Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R14 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
20%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Florian Huepper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Linus Albat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Loss vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Leonardo Paixão Viana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zoe Morgan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.