Prism, Awakener of Sol
14 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-3-0
60%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
4.8
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Win vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuanji Li (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Gustavo Caperan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81
Round 13: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 15: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 16: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (6/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R13 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R16 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
5th • 7-3-0
70%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.6
Surp
4.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Harle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs CODY READY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Franche Tan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Round 16: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R16 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
5th • 7-3-0
80%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jamie Faulkner (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob West (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
Round 5: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R16 CC
Round 16: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R15 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R16 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
71st • 4-5-0
89%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
4.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joshua Tavares (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 13: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 14: Loss vs Peter Nethan Henriksen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R14 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
132nd • 4-5-0
56%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Asquith (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
Round 5: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
Round 14: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 15: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Richards (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paweł Leszuk (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
Round 3: Loss vs Jascha Werth (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Round 5: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64
Round 5: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Felipe Rita (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 4: Loss vs Breno Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Moore (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Victor Reis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arthur Nijssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.