Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire at Pro Tour: London

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Tickal

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Karan Gill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kaloyan Nikov

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.10
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Maurice Hostettler

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Linus Albat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Fabbri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nguyen Giang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.06
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.