Dorinthea Ironsong at Pro Tour: London

Dorinthea Ironsong

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuto Suzuki

102nd • 5-4-0

22%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

5.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Rodrigues (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Collins (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs kuba tambor (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.32
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.89
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.08
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.00

Joshua Lau

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mike Morelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor McGrath (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Zapata (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.84
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.72
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Lucas Bortolucci

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Nijssen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Asquith (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ruairidh Wasson

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jan Eid (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.42
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Stew Fraser

dropped • 1-4-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Collins (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.87
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Alaric Ng

dropped • 0-5-0

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gregory Patellis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Kruithof (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.