Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
113th • 5-4-0
33%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
80:20
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Dagan White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 15: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R14 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R15 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Loss |
39th • 4-5-0
11%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.1
Surp
5.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
Round 3: Win vs Euan Ansell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob West (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs CODY READY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 13: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R13 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R14 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
0%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
5.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bloodworth (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Win vs James LeResche (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Dowling (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Peter Markovič (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Alex Becker (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Kelvin Tan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kristian Čurla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
Round 5: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs sean Burke (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Juliano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
Round 5: Win vs Tom Simon (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Matheus Pereira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Greg Mansfield (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sophia Claire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 2: Win vs Ian Holland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
0.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs simon diaz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
0% (0/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.