Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Pro Tour: London
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
27th • 7-2-0
33%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
4.5
Surp
7.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Brookes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs IAN MESQUITA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs kuba tambor (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
7.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-1-0
40%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marijn Lybaert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Kinison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Breno Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-1
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Erik Baalhuis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Draw |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Drabusenigg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Erik Skinstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.