Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-2-0
64%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dennis Werk (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
15th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs René Rosenberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leonardo Bednik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bram Hast (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kin Yen Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Paul Beese (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jordi De Jonghe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
55th • 3-4-1
75%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24
Round 2: Loss vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Mark Klee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
Round 4: Loss vs Hao Ru Wu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthias Weirich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael de Kok (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Draw |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
67th • 2-5-1
75%
Meta
-3.1
Perf
4.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Fabian Groß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36
Round 4: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mark Klee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
Round 6: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Louis Duruy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Alexander Leus (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-3.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 85% | Loss |
| R8 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
63rd • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin van Steenis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Birkir Örn Sigurðsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Markus Tusche (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Fiumanò (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wim Raes (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Virginia Rosenberg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Patrick Mishima (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Markovič (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33
Round 3: Loss vs Denis Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Elista Cyrek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Quinten de Jongh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Oliver M (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Robert van der Padt (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kostadin Vodenicharov (Unknown)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Amber Varwijk (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tat Chuong Hua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.