Battle Hardened: Eindhoven - Riptide, Lurker of the Deep (CC)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Leus

70th • 1-5-2

50%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Staubesandt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Waij (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Robert van der Padt (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Xandor Tollenaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs René Van Hoorn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.30
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Pascal Flügel

dropped • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Markus Tusche (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Thoen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gilles De Vylder

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Burggraaff (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.