Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Leus

70th • 1-5-2

50%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Staubesandt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Waij (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Robert van der Padt (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Xandor Tollenaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tim Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs René Van Hoorn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Pascal Flügel

dropped • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Markus Tusche (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Thoen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gilles De Vylder

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 12:88

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Burggraaff (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.