Kassai of the Golden Sand at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven
Kassai of the Golden Sand
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-3-2
83%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Brockhage (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremie Pohl (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexej Frikel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 23:77
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Alexander Leus (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Klenke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 75:25
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Draw |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Draw |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 75% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.