Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kostadin Vodenicharov (Unknown)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Paul Moerler (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
Round 3: Win vs Hugo Platret (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs René Van Hoorn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Birkir Örn Sigurðsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Doroschewski Christoph (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Round 8: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
47th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Virginia Rosenberg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Leonardo Bednik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bram bertens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
Round 8: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
51st • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kin Yen Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Danny van Zon (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Markus Tusche (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rene Farwer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Enes Findik (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Bart Horré (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wim Raes (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Pavlos Konstantinidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Frijters (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Denis Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pavlos Konstantinidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jacqueline Holthausen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Finn Labe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Virginia Rosenberg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dennis Werk (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finn Labe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 4: Win vs Francesco Fiumanò (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robin Deceuninck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Frijters (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Martin Steinheuer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.