Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eyüp Vroegop (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
52nd • 3-2-3
12%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Michiel Vonck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bram bertens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 85:15
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
Round 4: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Martin Steinheuer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Patrick Mishima (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Draw |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Draw |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Draw |
57th • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Clara Labe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Klenke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Louis Duruy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthias Weirich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-1
83%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Oliver M (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Felix Buchs (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs René Van Hoorn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rene Gropp (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Draw |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 3: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Klee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Florian Huepper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Bednik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs sylvain verdet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Doroschewski Christoph (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kerwin Holtslag (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tom Burggraaff (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oliver Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Round 4: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.