Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 2: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eyüp Vroegop (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
52nd • 3-2-3
12%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Michiel Vonck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bram bertens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
Round 4: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Martin Steinheuer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Patrick Mishima (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Draw |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Draw |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Draw |
57th • 3-5-0
38%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Clara Labe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Klenke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Louis Duruy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthias Weirich (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-1
83%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Oliver M (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Felix Buchs (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs René Van Hoorn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rene Gropp (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Draw |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 3: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Klee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Florian Huepper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Bednik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs sylvain verdet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Julien Desuter (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Doroschewski Christoph (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kerwin Holtslag (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tom Burggraaff (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oliver Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
Round 4: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Florian Vanbrakel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.