Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kevin Wiercx

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael de Kok (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Su (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Staubesandt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Jun Lin Xie

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Mishima (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Leus (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leo Dancette (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Malyk Höfle

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Beese (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rene Farwer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Depprich (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.41
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Stephan Waider

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tijs de Kort (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bram bertens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 85:15

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Klenke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Laurens Overgaauw

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tijs de Kort (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Felix Gössel

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michel Radosevic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.57

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.