Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael de Kok (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Su (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Staubesandt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Mishima (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Leus (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leo Dancette (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.26
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Beese (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rene Farwer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

Dorinthea Ironsong

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Depprich (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Godon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.82
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tijs de Kort (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Uzuri, Switchblade

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bram bertens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Klenke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Laurens Overgaauw

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tijs de Kort (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Dash I/O

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.23
R2	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

dropped • 1-1-0

0%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michel Radosevic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 30:70

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.93

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.