Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Eindhoven

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Doroschewski Christoph

35th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordi De Jonghe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Oliver M (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Moerler (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs sylvain verdet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Denis Müller (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Markus Tusche

38th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pascal Flügel (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eyüp Vroegop (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ricardo Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pavlos Konstantinidis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.57
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Antoine Trannoy

48th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Schindler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Huepper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Duruy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rene Gropp (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michiel Vonck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michel Radosevic (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.81
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Staubesandt

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Leus (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs René Rosenberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver M (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Viliam Kubik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Raphaël Snaet (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Martin Steinheuer

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alwart Nijveld (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aurelien Souchet (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Sebastiaan Knetsch

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Moerler (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quinten de Jongh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.21
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.