Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Battle Hardened

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Davis Groza

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis Duruy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael de Kok (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bart de Jong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Danny van Zon (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ricardo Nguyen

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Markus Tusche (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Eric Plaschnick

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Filipe Camacho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Robin Deceuninck

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Bednik (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.