Aurora, Shooting Star
23 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
90%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
4.7
Surp
4.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs 秀太 栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
5th • 7-1-0
75%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryouhei Ishimura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryouhei Ishimura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
10th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Okabe Keisuke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Masaru Sasaki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
14th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Frank Hung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Round 3: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
17th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 央 井沼 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Toranosuke Matsusaka (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
Round 4: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 7: Win vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
20th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 匡俊 和氣 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Reo Hamada (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Frank Hung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tomoya Ohta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
24th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 北斗 神原 (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 央 井沼 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tomoya Ohta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
30th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yuki Tanaka (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
34th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
37th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 和佳 倉田 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hajime Okada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
41st • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
42nd • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 高柳 賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
48th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs syun suzuki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
85:15
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
50th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rocky Cheung (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hajime Okada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
53rd • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs 大貴 浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Toranosuke Matsusaka (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Loss vs syun suzuki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 理央 鎌田 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Reo Hamada (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mason Galvan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.