Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025 - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

takahiro nishimura

31st • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.16
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Ikumi Miyao

51st • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Okabe Keisuke

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryouhei Ishimura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.