Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

takahiro nishimura

31st • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Ikumi Miyao

51st • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.31
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Okabe Keisuke

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryouhei Ishimura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.