Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
33rd • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs eiji ito (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76
Round 7: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
44th • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Reo Hamada (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
Round 5: Win vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs takahiro nishimura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Toranosuke Matsusaka (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs MICHI HIGASHI (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Carlo Luis Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hajime Okada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Okabe Keisuke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Takuya Yokoi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.