Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025 - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Atsushi Taichi

11th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 雄斗宮地 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 秀太栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Yuuki Nada

49th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryouhei Ishimura (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hajime Okada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

央井沼

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 秀太栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 大貴浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

eiji ito

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reo Hamada (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Takuya Yokoi

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 雄斗宮地 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Neil Bautista

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.