Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

大貴浅海

15th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hajime Okada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 央井沼 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.23
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Yuki Tanaka

36th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Gyuwon Yoon

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs eiji ito (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Tanaka (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marion Ronquillo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.13
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.19
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Teddy Tai

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

理央鎌田

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.