Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

大貴浅海

15th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hajime Okada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 央井沼 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.23
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Yuki Tanaka

36th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mitsuhiro Iwata (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Gyuwon Yoon

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs eiji ito (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Tanaka (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marion Ronquillo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Teddy Tai

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.42
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

理央鎌田

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.