Vynnset, Iron Maiden
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs MICHI HIGASHI (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 大貴 浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Round 6: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
16th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
Round 2: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 寺北 凌 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
27th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 大貴 浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Win vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
54th • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs taisuke nagai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Toranosuke Matsusaka (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
Round 4: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs tomohiro tani (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takuya Yokoi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.