FaB-Results

Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tatsuaki Tsuchida
3rd • 6-3-0
44%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.9
Surp
3.0
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs MICHI HIGASHI (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
!!
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
Nuu, Alluring Desire
!!
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Arakni, Marionette
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 大貴 浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Aurora, Shooting Star
!
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Zen, Tamer of Purpose
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Aurora, Shooting Star
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Zen, Tamer of Purpose
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Hongkai Guo
16th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
!!
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 寺北 凌 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Prism, Awakener of Sol
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17
Nuu, Alluring Desire
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
Aurora, Shooting Star
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Xavier McLean
27th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Arakni, Marionette
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 大貴 浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
!!
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
Aurora, Shooting Star
!
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
野原 由一
54th • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs taisuke nagai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Takeji Furugen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78
Prism, Awakener of Sol
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Deitrich Mohan
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
!!
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Toranosuke Matsusaka (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
Nuu, Alluring Desire
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
Aurora, Shooting Star
!
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Johnny Zen
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs tomohiro tani (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
Aurora, Shooting Star
!
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Aurora, Shooting Star
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xavier McLean (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Hangjune "Shu" Cho
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
Jarl Vetreiði
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takuya Yokoi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Dorinthea Ironsong
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.