Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tomoya Ohta

13th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Masaru Sasaki (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Kyoshiro Takegahara

25th • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs YuDi Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Yuki Matsumoto

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

taisuke nagai

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.