Battle Hardened: Kobe 2025 - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kento Goya

26th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 寺北凌 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs taisuke nagai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.17
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Yuusuke Kiguchi

47th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marion Ronquillo (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Reo Hamada (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.17
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Phitchaya Tungpavitaya

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.07
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.