Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Shinjuku 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

5th • 10-3-0

31%

Meta

+4.3

Perf

6.6

Surp

6.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryota Miyamoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 司忠甲地 (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Hlaing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yoshihiko Kato (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs haruka sonoda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Masay Toda (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hiroaki Miyamura (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

31% (4/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.25
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.35
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.51
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.45
R8	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.90
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.24
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.17
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Rio Sakai

49th • 7-5-0

50%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kei kimura (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ryuto nakagawa (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shoki Imacho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marquis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs ジミイヘンスウォース (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.11
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.87
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

一樹日浦

59th • 6-6-0

42%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

6.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryo Takashima (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuto Mori (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 優大村 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs kumagai takuya (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs DAN DAN (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Panliang He (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.09
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.74
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.85
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Akira Inuma

62nd • 6-6-0

25%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs 三輪佑樹 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 佐藤宗良 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Canedy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs OH Youngjin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs ジミイヘンスウォース (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jack Tang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Shoma Nakama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yuto Mori (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

25% (3/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.76
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.19
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Keisuke Oki

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jihoon Park (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 孝晃長濱 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryo Shigeta (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.08
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

LEE JUI-CHI

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shoma Nakama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 優大村 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs EIKI SUGAI (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mizuki Takei (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kurt Samson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.40
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Marcus Javier

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ognjen Sipraga (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 孝晃長濱 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Naoki Yasukawa (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Masaru Yoshizawa

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Satoru Doumoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tomohiko Shimanouchi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 和佳倉田 (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs erwin leung (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ugo Henson (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.90
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

June Lekstutis

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 明久髙橋 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryuya Fukuda (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs takamitsu maruyama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Manuel Succari (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs yinglin fu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs DAN DAN (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.56
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.81
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.50
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tatsuaki Tsuchida

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Masay Toda (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 康仁三竹 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yusuke Miki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs 祥弘橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

naoki tsuji

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Panliang He (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Akira NAKAJIMA (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs KYOSUKE YAMAMOTO (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 雄一中島 (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuya Nakata (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.61
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

ナオヤタカハシ

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryo Shigeta (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs juno choi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuuya Okawa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jun Sato (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kenichi Kataoka (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.69
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.41

Ryo Kawasaki

dropped • 0-7-0

43%

Meta

-3.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshihiko Kato (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Takahiro Motooka (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryosuke Nakata (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 理央鎌田 (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs 卓也金子 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 裕貴藤盛 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs ジョーン K (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shogo Takayama (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazuya Mishima (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yohei Kurihara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs TAITO SUZUKI (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.85
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Manson Hsiau

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 金昱成 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richie Britton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Debrian Figueroa

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomoaki Yoshimura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lane Thomason (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shota kajiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.25
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Koichiro Sato

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mizuki Takei (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs ryo inoue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Melvin Chew

dropped • 0-5-0

60%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Masaki Hamada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YE MINSHENG (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryosuke Kono (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 卓也金子 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

康仁三竹

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs YUKITOMO DAIKI (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryosuke Nakata (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Satoshi Kawamoto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Gammons

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 小谷康斗 (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.